Issued on: 12/04/2026 - 17:57Modified: 13/04/2026 - 11:14

François Picard is joined by Aaron David Miller, former State Department Middle East negotiator and Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. With decades of experience in diplomacy, Miller sees the current situation in the Middle East not as the result of a coherent strategy, but as an exercise in improvisation, shaped by pressure, personalities, and shifting power dynamics.

The negotiations involving Iran, Israel, and Lebanon are driven less by trust or a shared vision for resolution, and more by tactical necessity and differing perceptions of advantage. According to Miller, the United States is looking for a way out of a conflict it initially chose to enter, while Iran, seeing itself as strategically ascendant, is in no rush to compromise – even as it faces the fallout of relentless airstrikes.

The diplomatic framework being formed, relying on intermediaries, informal envoys, and unclear mandates, reflects fragmentation rather than strength within decision-making. Progress, Miller argues, will not come from symbolic gestures or ad hoc channels, but from direct, disciplined negotiations grounded in an understanding of history, geography, and the legitimate interests of all parties involved.

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