Issued on: 08/04/2026 - 21:58Modified: 09/04/2026 - 10:08

François Picard welcomes Mumtaz Zahra Baloch, Pakistan’s ambassador to France and Permanent Delegate to UNESCO. According to Baloch, the truce between Iran and the US is less about outright victory and more about survival – and a recalibration of power. She notes that what we are witnessing is not the end of a war, but the emergence of competing narratives that each side must sustain for political legitimacy: both sides claim success, yet neither has truly secured any semblance of victory.

Iran’s threshold for success, she argues, differs sharply from that of the United States or Israel. Washington presents the outcome as a decisive military success. Tehran, by contrast, frames regime survival in the face of overwhelming force as a strategic win.

Beneath the surface, she says, the balance of power inside Iran has shifted. The Revolutionary Guards have further consolidated their influence, without fundamentally changing the nature of the regime.

The ceasefire should not be mistaken for stability. It is a fragile pause, with unresolved tensions and regional fault lines that could quickly reignite the conflict.

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